{"id":23291,"date":"2020-08-17T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-08-17T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2020\/08\/17\/arms-trade-momentum-globalization-and-us-defense-spending-drive-defense-industry-growth\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:59:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:59:10","slug":"arms-trade-momentum-globalization-and-us-defense-spending-drive-defense-industry-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/top-100\/2020\/08\/17\/arms-trade-momentum-globalization-and-us-defense-spending-drive-defense-industry-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Arms trade momentum: Globalization and US defense spending drive defense industry growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2015 Defense revenues of the top 100 defense companies in the world climbed for a fourth straight year, pushed upward by U.S. defense spending growth combined with strong foreign military sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiscal 2019 defense revenues recorded in Defense News\u2019 Top 100 list<\/a> totaled $524 billion, up about 7 percent from $488 billion in fiscal 2018, according to numbers compiled by Defense News as part of the annual Top 100 list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe single most striking thing about these data is the year-over-year growth, the median of which is 7 percent,\u201d said Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Steven Grundman. \u201cFor an industry generally regarded as mature, revenue growth that runs at two times global GDP is downright sporty.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to see the Defense News Top 100 list.<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The defense industry remained top heavy, as the top 10 firms accounted for 50 percent of total defense revenue on this year\u2019s list, and the top 25 companies accounted for about 75 percent of the total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geographically, U.S. firms made up seven of the top 10, and 10 of the top 25. The combined defense revenue of the 41 U.S. firms in the Top 100 list comprised more than half of the total defense revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China this year had five firms in the top 15 companies versus six last year. Eight Chinese firms made the Top 100 list this year, with a combined $95 billion in defense revenue for FY19 \u2015 which is $11.7 billion shy of the list\u2019s total for Europe and Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Aviation Industry Corporation of China, which appeared with other Chinese firms for the first time last year, fell from No. 5 to No. 6, though its defense revenue grew by a percentage point over last year. China South Industries Group Corporation fell from No. 11 to No. 18, as its revenue declined 26 percent, from about $12 billion to around $9 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is unquestionably a defense giant in the Asia-Pacific region, dwarfing its nine neighbors (excluding Russia) on the list. Their 2019 defense revenues totaled $21 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The combined revenues of the Chinese firms marks the country as the rising superpower it\u2019s billed to be in political and strategic circles, said Daniel Gour\u00e9, a senior vice president with the Lexington Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor all the discussions we have been having over the last weeks and months about China as a potential threat and challenges, they are building all kinds of blue-water ship classes that mirror the U.S. Navy,\u201d he said. \u201cFor a country that was once thought of as a continental or near-shore power, it\u2019s amazing the stuff they\u2019re building, and its reflected in these companies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Europe and Turkey, a NATO ally, there were 35 firms across the list. The combined defense revenue there comprised roughly 20 percent of the Top 100 total. Seven Turkish firms made the list, with FNSS Savunma Sistemleri A.S., and Havelsan A.S. joining the list at No. 98 and No. 99 respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Russia, some past participants declined to provide data this year for unknown reasons. The two that participated made it into the list: Almaz-Antey placed 17th, with $9.2 billion in defense revenue for 2019, and Tactical Missiles Corporation JSC placed 35th, with $3.5 billion in defense revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The annual Defense News Top 100 list relies for the most part on self-reporting from companies, many of whom provide estimates rather than definitive data for their defense percentages. That means that while the list is the industry standard, the numbers come with some variance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heritage firms dominate<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lockheed Martin was a lock for No. 1, for the 21st year in a row, with defense revenue that represents nearly 11 percent of the total. Its defense revenue jumped 12 percent between FY18 and FY19, from $51 billion to $57 billion \u2015 with Boeing trailing at No. 2 at $34 billion in defense revenue for FY19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within the top five, General Dynamics climbed back from No. 6 last year, passing both Raytheon and Northrop Grumman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Northrop fell from No. 3 to No. 4, likely based on a full-year accounting of its acquisition of Orbital ATK in 2017, said analyst Roman Schweizer, managing director of Cowen and Company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GD led Northrop by $912 million in defense revenue, with Raytheon (5th place) trailing Northrop by $1.2 billion in defense revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
An F-35 from the 34th Fighter Squadron at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, lands at Royal Air Force Lakenheath, England, April 19, 2017. (Staff Sgt. Emerson Nu\u00f1ez\/U.S. Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ten companies increased their defense revenue by $1 billion or more, and Lockheed Martin led the pack with a $6 billion boost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The merger between L3 Technologies (18th place last year) and Harris Corp. (26th place last year) saw a new entry, L3Harris Technologies, take the No. 9 spot, with $13.9 billion in defense revenue \u2015 just ahead of United Technologies Corp., which acquired Rockwell Collins in 2018 and whose merger with Raytheon should be reflected in next year\u2019s list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the data doesn\u2019t support the argument that the defense industry is growing progressively more concentrated, according to Grundman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe top-quartile of firms account for exactly three-quarters of the revenue both in 2018 and 2019,\u201d he said. \u201cLooking back at the data for 2013, the top quartile took 73 percent of the revenue, but that\u2019s not appreciably less than last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, despite the Pentagon\u2019s push to work with nontraditional suppliers, the top of this year\u2019s list, and the list overall, is almost like the automotive sector, it\u2019s so dominated by familiar names, said Byron Callan, an analyst with Capital Alpha Partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe interesting thing is just the relative stability of this,\u201d Callan said. \u201cFor all of DoD\u2019s emphasis to get new entrants into the sector<\/a>, and reach out to innovative suppliers, you just don\u2019t see it. When you compare it to the technology sector, we\u2019re all using things made by companies that weren\u2019t even household names 10 years ago. … Where is the Tesla [of the defense sector]?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not out of the question that the list changes over the next five years, if the U.S. Department of Defense and foreign militaries make good on their promises to boost innovation, Callan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For all the DoD\u2019s discussion of the growing role of software, artificial intelligence and machine learning, there\u2019s no company known for those things on the list, Gour\u00e9 observed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond General Dynamics, which completed its acquisition of IT services giant CSRA in 2018, \u201cAI, software, IT aren\u2019t there because they\u2019re still subcontractors,\u201d Gour\u00e9 said. \u201cMicrosoft and Amazon Web Services, they aren\u2019t anywhere on the list.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s not to say there isn\u2019t massive spending on all of the above, but it remains a subcomponent within companies, and therefore not captured on the list, Gour\u00e9 said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we keep saying it\u2019s the kill chain, the network matters and the country with the best AI will win, are we not investing enough, are we doing the right thing?\u201d Gour\u00e9 wondered. \u201cThere are more questions than answers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Booz Allen Hamilton, No. 26 this year, did win an $800 million Pentagon artificial intelligence contract. But as that occurred in May 2020, it will likely impact future lists.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, the large, multiplatform firms dominate and should continue to do so, even if government defense spending declines, Gour\u00e9 said. \u201cThese guys are showing it\u2019s good to have a finger in many pies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Dassault Aviation employees work on an assembly line for the Rafale fighter jets in Merignac, southwestern France, on January 14, 2019. – French Defence Minister, Florence Parly, launched on January 14, 2019 a 1,9-billion-euro-programme for the new F4 standard of the Dassault Rafale combat aircraft. (MEHDI FEDOUACH\/AFP\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, the data tend to contradict the conventional wisdom that defense is an industry of mostly large-scale, pure-play firms, according to Grundman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn fact, the median [defense] revenue of the top 100 is only $2 billion. And on average, only slightly more than half each firm\u2019s revenue … derives from defense sales,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flat-budget future?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consensus among analysts is that government defense spending will level off amid the coronavirus pandemic<\/a>, and its effects as well as the result of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November will be reflected in future lists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSuccessful years of investment spending growth appears to be ending, but outlays are still growing due to the surge in spending over the last three years. But they are starting to taper significantly after this year,\u201d Schweizer said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schweizer sees foreign spending softening, at least in the short term due to COVID-19, but he predicts defense budgets, backlogs, outlays and foreign military sales will hold together for at least 12-18 months to help defense firms weather the unprecedented damage visiting the commercial aerospace sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest risk is the U.S. budget trajectory, which is likely to be flat, at best, or decline in mid-single digits, at worst, over the next five years, Schweitzer added. He anticipates a drop of 3-5 percent, but with the Pentagon\u2019s eye on Russia and China, the department will likely make trade-offs to protect core modernization areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As global growth rates slow, future lists may see some familiar companies grow leaner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese companies are going to figure out what their growth businesses are so they can shrink to grow,\u201d Callan said. \u201cThey all say they\u2019re well positioned [for slower defense spending], but what the hell does that mean? They can\u2019t all be right.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
China’s Communist Party leaders and delegates, including President Xi Jinping, sit at the opening of the National People’s Congress on May 22, 2020, in Beijing, China. (Kevin Frayer\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Other notable moves included Reston, Virginia-based engineering and construction company Bechtel, which fell to No. 47 from No. 31 last year; the firm\u2019s defense revenue declined 39 percent, from $3.7 billion to $2.3 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In France, Safran\u2019s defense revenue jumped from $1.6 billion in FY18 to $4.4 billion in FY19, bumping it from No. 56 to No. 28. However, the company told Defense News that it attributes the large rise to a difference in calculation for this year\u2019s list. Since 2015, the data from Safran were made up of Safran Electronics & Defense activities. This year, the firm changed its approach by adding the military activities of the group\u2019s other subsidiaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also in France, Dassault nearly doubled its revenue from $2.9 billion in FY18 to $5.7 billion in FY19 \u2015 jumping from No. 38 to No. 22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan\u2019s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries vaulted back onto the list to No. 21, with $6.6 billion in defense revenue. However, it\u2019s worth noting that defense revenue numbers reflect awards made by the Japanese Ministry of Defense, which leads to more year-over-year volatility among Japanese firms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The three Israeli companies on this year\u2019s list \u2014 Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems \u2014 moved up in the ranking. The sole South American company on the lsit, Embraer, also moved up, from No. 84 to No. 79.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the only non-U.S. North American company on this year\u2019s list \u2014 Canada\u2019s CAE \u2014 dropped four spots to No. 74, but its defense revenue grew by a percentage point.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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