{"id":35641,"date":"2019-12-17T16:00:11","date_gmt":"2019-12-17T16:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2019\/12\/17\/trans-atlantic-relations-a-la-macron-could-make-natos-brain-death-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T20:49:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T20:49:42","slug":"trans-atlantic-relations-a-la-macron-could-make-natos-brain-death-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2019\/12\/17\/trans-atlantic-relations-a-la-macron-could-make-natos-brain-death-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy\/","title":{"rendered":"Trans-Atlantic relations a la Macron could make NATO\u2019s brain death a self-fulfilling prophecy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Whether reckless, a dubious gamble or a calculated attempt to shift European security policy writ large, French President Emmanuel Macron\u2019s choice words describing NATO\u2019s \u201cbrain death\u201d has made a lasting impression. Beneath the surface, a larger risk to the trans-Atlantic relationship looms in the Trump-like rhetoric. Macron\u2019s increasing skepticism toward U.S. foreign policy is forcing him to spell out a different vision for European security. This vision sees less American engagement and seeks to reengage malign actors like Russia<\/a>, all the while recasting them as less problematic to European security than the past several years would suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rhetoric doesn\u2019t seem to be a bug \u2014 it\u2019s built in. But the real problem is that if we remain on the current path, Macron\u2019s take on NATO\u2019s flatlining could change from a colorful metaphor about troubled times for the alliance to a self-fulfilling prophecy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Macron\u2019s rhetoric is not an accident and is meant to shape NATO and European security, we need to, as Macron himself suggests, understand \u201cthe world as it is<\/a>.\u201d The U.S. and Europe face no shortage of common challenges today. Instability in the Middle East poses serious security questions for Europe and the U.S. alike. Russia looms to the east. And the challenge from China<\/a> to the multilateral system looms even larger. Internally, inequities in defense spending are a cause for consternation, as are capability gaps and diverging threat perception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the challenges facing the alliance are clear, there remains significant debate on how best to tackle them. On external challenges, NATO is better positioned to address some more than others, but it can play a part in each of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The troubling part isn\u2019t the fact that Macron continues to highlight the difficulties facing the alliance, but rather the way Paris has chosen to frame them. From Washington, it seems the president of a leading European NATO nation is trying to shape consensus in Europe on the long-term character of U.S. foreign policy, one that sees a lack of commitment to trans-Atlantic security as a permanent fixture (U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria being the most recent example for Paris). And unfortunately it\u2019s not difficult to find a sympathetic audience at the moment. But such rhetoric \u2014 coupled with the damage done by the U.S. president \u2014 has the potential to significantly reshape the trans-Atlantic relationship for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/atype-video-jwplayer>
President Donald Trump didn’t mince words when talking about the French premier’s comments about the NATO alliance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n

This isn\u2019t the first time Europe\u2019s festering crisis of confidence in Washington during the Trump administration has exposed itself. And as I\u2019ve argued elsewhere<\/a>, it is a real challenge for the alliance. In 2017, German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave her now infamous beer-tent speech where she remarked \u201cthe era in which we could fully rely on others is over to some extent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, despite being the lightning rod of much of Trump\u2019s ire, Berlin has attempted to be pragmatic with its approach. Most recently, Germany\u2019s new defense minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, outlined her vision for Germany\u2019s foreign and security policy, a vision \u201cdeeply embedded in the trans-Atlantic alliance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Macron\u2019s approach is different, and it\u2019s getting more attention. In his effort to rally momentum for European security policy and the European project, he seems ready to sacrifice the traditional U.S. position in European security. Rather than embed strategic thinking in the partnership, he leans on Europe to take on a more multi-vector, independent power-broker role in the new geopolitical era. This was clear in his comments at the Paris Peace Forum, where he argued that as it relates to China<\/a>, Europe should find new balances and be an independent third party. While discussions around China are charged and difficult in the current context, disregarding the potential for a common trans-Atlantic approach to what will be the most significant geopolitical challenge for the foreseeable future is startling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategy bears real risks. Just as the U.S. would be weaker without its traditional alliance relationships, so too is Europe and France. Even if Europe had the capabilities to act more independently, would it be wise? With a clear-eyed view of the world, who are the most dependable partners outside of Europe with a significant overlap of interests and values, not to mention interoperable capabilities?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Soldiers of the Polish Army watch as smoke rises from a live fire demonstration during the NATO Noble Jump military exercises on June 12, 2019, in Zagan, Poland. The country’s land forces are in line for an upgrade of their tanks and armored vehicles. (Photo by Sean Gallup\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This rhetoric leaves NATO and the broader partnership at a drawn-out and painful inflection point. Yet, the alliance itself is only \u201cbrain dead\u201d if its members lose collective confidence and political will to confront the very real challenges facing both sides of the Atlantic, including the internal ones. An optimistic outlook is that Macron\u2019s comments have sounded the alarm bells and are forcing the alliance to administer some much-needed medicine (e.g., the forward-looking reflection process agreed to at London), but there is a real fear that he is only further poisoning the ailing patient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the U.S., a more fundamental question lingers: What does Washington do in a world where its allies are starting to accept and echo the current U.S. administration\u2019s rhetoric? Regardless, it is difficult to see how Washington could be ready for such a radical shift in the trans-Atlantic partnership. A look at the National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy clearly spells out the invaluable role of allies and partners. France, as one of the most formidable European military powers, plays a significant role here. Such an abrupt change would require a serious rethink of U.S. policy globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As competitors seek to tear down or remake the international system in their own image, Washington and European capitals must seriously consider the consequences of making long-term bets on short-term realities. Unfortunately, rhetoric like Macron\u2019s provides yet another pathway for spoilers and challengers to sow division in Europe and across the Atlantic. A more responsive, capable Europe should be welcomed by the U.S. and other European capitals, but implementing the approach advanced by Macron could be at the expense of NATO, the broader trans-Atlantic partnership, and ultimately the interest of both the U.S. and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steven Keil is a fellow in the German Marshall Fund\u2019s Washington office. His work focuses on trans-Atlantic security issues, with an emphasis on the United States, Germany, Russia and the post-Soviet space. He previously worked for Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The troubling part isn\u2019t the fact that the French president continues to highlight the difficulties facing NATO, but rather the way he has chosen to frame 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