{"id":65581,"date":"2023-12-04T11:17:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-04T11:17:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2023\/12\/04\/four-factors-shaping-european-defense-in-2024-and-beyond\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:59:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:59:08","slug":"four-factors-shaping-european-defense-in-2024-and-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/europe\/2023\/12\/04\/four-factors-shaping-european-defense-in-2024-and-beyond\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s long shadow: Four factors shaping European defense in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">PARIS, ROME and COLOGNE, Germany \u2014 War is officially on Germany\u2019s agenda. The prevention of it, that is, and the country\u2019s defense during one, if it ever came to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But in a nation haunted by the militaristic ghosts of its past, the recent demand by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius that Germans should ready themselves for the possibility of actual war still came as a shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Semantically, the adjective \u201ckriegst\u00fcchtig,\u201d first floated by the minister in an October interview with German TV station ZDF, lives somewhere between becoming \u201cwar-capable\u201d and \u201cwar-proficient,\u201d nuances guaranteed to make Germans uncomfortable. Formally, it is now part of the ministry\u2019s nomenclature that makes up the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmvg.de\/de\/aktuelles\/verteidigungspolitische-richtlinien-2023-veroeffentlicht-5701338\">latest written guidance<\/a> for the future of Germany\u2019s armed forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/unmanned\/2023\/05\/09\/french-vision-for-an-autonomous-europe-proves-elusive\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1249938279.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">French vision for an autonomous Europe proves elusive<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Russia&#039;s war against Ukraine has led to some fresh soul-searching in Europe about the continent&#039;s reliance on the United States for security.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Critics quickly seized on the term, construing it as warmongering or lamenting the lack of a more pronounced defensive focus. But what has become clear is that the fighting in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, combined with an upcoming U.S. presidential election, could define Europe\u2019s trajectory no matter the semantic bickering about what is, or isn\u2019t, war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Defense News asked European analysts about what the year 2024 will hold for the continent. Pervasive in the interviews was a sense of urgency in the face of Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine and the fallout for the continent. Russia\u2019s delayed but now-massive buildup of its arms industry has experts worried President Vladimir Putin\u2019s war machine will be trigger-happy toward its neighbors long after the fighting there stops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cToday we are in a situation where we need to make real decisions, not discuss the need for making decisions,\u201d Hanno Pevkur, Estonia\u2019s defense minister, told his colleagues at a November meeting in Brussels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Letting go?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the European Union has long had a defense agenda, it has struggled to meet<b> <\/b>a key prerequisite: a sense of unity among its members on questions of war and peace, held together by a shared threat perception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mechanisms like the European Defence Fund or Permanent Structured Cooperation security initiative aim to grease the wheels of defense cooperation between member countries, hoping years spent on cooperative development projects spur a sense of shared ownership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1207\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-607521248.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-26357\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-607521248.jpg.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-607521248.jpg.jpg?resize=300,181 300w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-607521248.jpg.jpg?resize=768,463 768w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-607521248.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,618 1024w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-607521248.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,927 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Mechanisms like the European Defence Fund aim to grease the wheels of defense cooperation between member countries. (Jacques Demarthon\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But overall, the idea that there is a unified military mindset in the EU is \u201chighly questionable,\u201d with many countries considering European defense first and foremost a matter for NATO and therefore the United States, said Yannick Qu\u00e9au, the director of the Brussels-based think tank GRIP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In that sense, pressing a defense-minded spirit onto an organization molded for maximizing peacetime potential may ultimately be a bridge too far, other analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe heterogeneity will only increase,\u201d said Christian M\u00f6lling, deputy director of the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations\u2019 Research Institute. He pointed to a future round of EU expansion, including applicant Ukraine, that would further stretch common defense objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bloc\u2019s genes are that of an institutional administrator \u2014 effective at regulating markets or resolving health and energy crises, but not at organizing a common defense, according to M\u00f6lling. \u201cWe may<b> <\/b>have to say goodbye to the idea of the EU as an actor in defense.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lucio Caracciolo, the editor of Italian geopolitics publication Limes, argued there\u2019s no point holding out for Europe to emerge as a united player on the world stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s impossible \u2014 Europe is not a geopolitical player; there are too many different interests at play,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile the Baltics, Scandinavia and Poland are hostile to Russia, Germany will want to rebuild the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Russia the moment there is a cease-fire\u201d in Ukraine, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Explosions damaged the gas pipeline linking Russia and Germany in September 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Great expectations<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">France and Germany will have to show significant progress in 2024 with their marquee defense projects to uphold the promise that close European allies can translate their goodwill into weapons \u2014 although it would take almost two decades, analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the table are a sixth-generation suite of air weaponry called the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2023\/06\/21\/fcas-air-chiefs-rally-around-collaborative-air-combat-concept\/\">Future Combat Air System<\/a>, or FCAS, and a new tank called the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2023\/09\/07\/europes-powerpoint-panzer-can-berlin-and-paris-pull-off-a-new-tank\/\">Main Ground Combat System<\/a>. Both have shaky histories<b> <\/b>because leaders in Berlin and Paris saw their political ambitions of next-gen weaponry, made in Europe by two lead nations, held up by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/industry\/2018\/11\/07\/europes-next-gen-fighter-jet-is-stuck-in-the-bickering-phase\/\">industrial infighting<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5568\" height=\"3712\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1258787206.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1258787206.jpg.jpg 5568w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1258787206.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1258787206.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1258787206.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1258787206.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1258787206.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1365 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5568px) 100vw, 5568px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A mock-up of a new-generation fighter for the Future Combat Air System program was on display during the 2023 Paris Air Show. (Julien de Rosa\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt would be good if we can end this back-and-forth lobbying about whether or not we\u2019re going ahead with the project,\u201d said Qu\u00e9au, referring to periodic news stories about one or the other partner considering to call it quits. \u201cThere has to be a more clearly stated political commitment at [a] very high level.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But without such a decision in 2024, \u201cwe\u2019ll fall further behind,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Franco-Germany tandem has failed to light any sparks, and Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, paradoxically, has sucked a lot of oxygen out of efforts to advance defense cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Franco-German [cooperation] has been stalled for some years now,\u201d said H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Masson, a senior research fellow at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research. \u201cAt the same time, the war in Ukraine has led to more bilateral and multilateral cooperation between countries sharing security challenges and supporting Ukraine,\u201d with Poland \u201cparticularly active\u201d in building a web of defense and armaments partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, EU members seeking closer ties with European defense heavyweight Britain, which is no longer in the union, and with the United States already are used to constructing a patchwork of bilateral and multilateral initiatives outside bloc channels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe draw of Atlanticism is prevalent,\u201d Masson said. \u201cThis environment makes the Franco-German [partnership] increasingly difficult to sustain.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe two countries are partners, sure, but they\u2019re also competitors in numerous areas, which makes the situation more complex,\u201d she added. \u201cEach is seeking to consolidate their position through cooperation: France in the fighter aircraft segment, Germany in the field of land armaments.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Wildcard USA<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After leaning on the U.S. for security guarantees for decades, Europe may find fewer friends in Washington if former President Donald Trump is reelected next year and implements his brand of isolationism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Though the election isn\u2019t until Nov. 5, 2024, and Trump has ample legal trouble that could create an uphill battle in the presidential race,<b> <\/b>polls show him as the presumptive Republican nominee to go against incumbent President Joe Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given Trump\u2019s disdain for NATO, and Europe in particular, a Trump victory could upend the continent\u2019s security calculus. He famously threatened at the alliance\u2019s 2018 summit in Brussels to withdraw from NATO over laggard European defense spending and has since made plans to follow through if given the chance, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rollingstone.com\/politics\/politics-features\/donald-trump-u-s-leave-nato-1234860016\/\" target=\"_blank\">Rolling Stone reported in October<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5192\" height=\"3462\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1186404143.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1186404143.jpg.jpg 5192w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1186404143.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1186404143.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1186404143.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1186404143.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1186404143.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1366 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5192px) 100vw, 5192px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Then-U.S. President Donald Trump, center, stands during a NATO summit on Dec. 4, 2019, in Watford, England. (Steve Parsons\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers floated legislation over the summer that would make it harder for a president to pull the country out of the alliance, requiring a two-thirds majority in the Senate. The measure is now part of conference negotiations between both chambers of Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notably, in 2018, experts pointed out American withdrawal mechanics may not matter: If adversaries have reason to believe a U.S. commander-in-chief would wobble on NATO\u2019s mutual-assistance pledge, their appetite for military adventurism would increase exponentially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, some in Europe say Trump\u2019s return to office could be the one thing capable of catalyzing Europe\u2019s defense ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yohann Michel, a research analyst in Berlin with the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said big-ticket defense projects could see a boost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe French-German FCAS fighter program and the European main battle tank program were both spurred by Trump\u2019s first term, and could consolidate and strengthen if he returns,\u201d he said. \u201cTrump would make the EU face up to hard choices, but the question is: Will it have the means to make those choices if we <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2023\/11\/17\/industry-group-rejects-eu-blame-in-missed-ammo-target-for-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\">still don\u2019t have enough ammunition to supply Ukraine or ourselves<\/a>?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gaspard Schnitzler, a senior research fellow at the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, agreed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cFrom a cynical point of view,\u201d a Trump reelection would be a good thing for European defense, with countries no longer able to count on U.S. aid therefore forced to strengthen EU defense, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dick Zandee, a defense analyst at the Clingendael Institute, based in The Hague, said there wouldn\u2019t be much of a silver lining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI\u2019m not sure that even if the pressure is that high, we\u2019ll be able to solve our problems. And there is a guy watching in Moscow, and he will make use of every situation to test us,\u201d he said, referring to Russian President Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Plant-based defense<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Orchestrating a ramp-up in ammunition production \u2014 for both Ukraine and EU members \u2014 may be the bloc\u2019s best hope in finding its defense groove over time, analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Though the production rate for materiel like 155mm artillery shells and mortar rounds is lagging, companies plan to expand their output as well as build or restart production plants. The process is expected to take years, but at least the to-do list is clearly defined, according to experts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAmmunition is really a key constraint for a lot of European militaries,\u201d said Ed Arnold, a research fellow for European security at the Royal United Services Institute in London. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have enough ammunition. So forget about the end use of what mission this might be on, and what we want to do with it. It\u2019s got to exist on the shelves first. That is quite expensive initially, to reopen production lines.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1491\" height=\"1073\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Cartridge-Ejected-Shot-One.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-106765\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Cartridge-Ejected-Shot-One.jpg.jpg 1491w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Cartridge-Ejected-Shot-One.jpg.jpg?resize=300,216 300w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Cartridge-Ejected-Shot-One.jpg.jpg?resize=768,553 768w, https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Cartridge-Ejected-Shot-One.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,737 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1491px) 100vw, 1491px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Ukrainian troops fire a D-30 howitzer toward Russian forces in Bakhmut on April 19, 2023. (Tom Mutch\/Staff)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBut there\u2019s no real alternative,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Estimates in Europe vary on the number of years it would take Russia to reconstitute its forces after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2023\/02\/13\/when-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end-experts-offer-their-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\">the war in Ukraine ends<\/a>. While Estonian intelligence estimates four years, Arnold expects it to be at least a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo the Europeans have a bit of time, but considering how long all of these things take, it\u2019s actually not a lot,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An estimate by the German Council on Foreign Relations pegs the time horizon as somewhere between six and 10 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to M\u00f6lling, one of the think tank\u2019s analysts, European governments should prioritize production of tried-and-true equipment at the expense of some development-heavy programs. Mass stockpiling, he said, is the new yardstick for deterrence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But bottlenecks remain. For example, the entire industry faces a shortage of raw materials and components, with Europe\u2019s aeronautics sector having to replace Russia as the supplier of 40% of its titanium, according to French analyst Schnitzler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An EU strategy for the defense industry, initially scheduled for November, was pushed to the first quarter 2024, \u201cbut delayed for a good reason,\u201d Schnitzler said. The European Commission will use the time for consultation with member states, industry and think tanks to reach a consensus proposal, he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amid the strategic urgency, the process is still rife with political drama. \u201cThe commission is walking on eggshells because some member states consider that it exceeds its powers,\u201d Schnitzler said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a sense of urgency in the face of Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine and the fallout for the continent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":118000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":46,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[160,46,11,36,18],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3427,3345,3425],"class_list":["post-65581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-europe","category-global","category-newsletters","category-outlook"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"DU7LRTJIGZD3ZO3H4U6KAE7FNU","arc_canonical_url":"\/global\/europe\/2023\/12\/04\/four-factors-shaping-european-defense-in-2024-and-beyond\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine\u2019s long shadow: Four factors shaping European defense in 2024 - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There is a sense of urgency in the face of Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine and the fallout for the continent.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/europe\/2023\/12\/04\/four-factors-shaping-european-defense-in-2024-and-beyond\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine\u2019s long shadow: Four factors shaping European defense in 2024\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There is 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