{"id":72615,"date":"2026-01-06T09:54:43","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T09:54:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2026\/01\/06\/after-us-move-on-venezuela-analysts-see-rules-based-order-at-risk\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T20:49:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T20:49:39","slug":"after-us-move-on-venezuela-analysts-see-rules-based-order-at-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/europe\/2026\/01\/06\/after-us-move-on-venezuela-analysts-see-rules-based-order-at-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"After US move on Venezuela, analysts see rules-based order at risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

PARIS \u2014 Following the United States capture of Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a> in a strike over the weekend, and renewed comments by U.S. President Donald Trump claiming Greenland, Defense News asked analysts in Europe and elsewhere to comment on the impact on the global rules-based order, the NATO alliance and Europe. Below is a selection of comments gathered via email and by phone, and some posted on social media:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How the U.S. action impacts the rules-based international order:<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is a flagrant violation of international law, which was developed to ensure peace and security in the world,\u201d said Jean-Pierre Maulnay, deputy director at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, or IRIS. \u201cBeyond the legal aspects, the political consequences could be very damaging, specifically for us Europeans. It is now impossible to promote the message that Western democracies are meant to be held up as a model.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn kidnapping Maduro, the Trump administration purposely puts itself outside the international order,\u201d said Sven Biscop, acting director-general of the Egmont Institute. \u201cInstead of a multilateral order in which all states have a say (even though, of course, some are more equal than others), Trump seeks to divide the world between the U.S., Russia, and China.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf Europe wants to maintain a rule-based order, it will have to act itself to save it. Stop being afraid of the U.S. reaction, therefore: Trump\u2019s NSS (National Security Strategy) is already a declaration of hostilities against the EU. The all too prudent reactions following Maduro\u2019s kidnapping are a grave error of judgement: this is not about Venezuela, but about Trump\u2019s strategy for the world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt suffices to say that other states could be more emboldened to carry out actions to remove hostile foreign leaders \u2014 although few have the capabilities to pull it off as cleanly as the U.S. did,\u201d said Giuseppe Spatafora, a research analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is highly likely that recent U.S. action in Venezuela will embolden authoritarian states,\u201d wroteTong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a post on X<\/a>. \u201cU.S. actions like the Venezuela operation allow authoritarian states to lower their threshold of acceptable behavior. (\u2026) When international public opinion shifts toward tolerating more problematic behavior in general, authoritarian states are likely to act more boldly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying, \u201dThe strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must,\u201d bears repeating these days. Europe\u2019s decision makers should take note,\u201d said Fabian Hoffmann, doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo, in a post on Bluesky<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou cannot cheer America\u2019s illegal attack on Venezuela while condemning Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and China\u2019s threats against Taiwan,\u201d wrote Jessica Berlin, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, on Bluesky<\/a>. \u201cSelective application of international law means no rule of law.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consequences for NATO:<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe trans-Atlantic partnership is only relevant as long as it serves U.S. interests,\u201d said Hans Peter Michaelsen, an independent defense analyst and former member of the Royal Danish Air Force. \u201cThis means that European NATO allies must find a much closer cooperation and try to act together as the Euro pillar of NATO.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe United States\u2019 security guarantee within NATO is becoming increasingly illusory,\u201d said Maulnay at IRIS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNATO may continue to exist, but since Trump sees Russia as a partner rather than a threat, the alliance is not actually important to him,\u201d said Biscop at the Egmont Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMinimizing public infighting among NATO allies is crucial, any visible discord plays right into Kremlin\u2019s hands,\u201d said Roger Hilton, a research fellow at GLOBSEC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the implications for Europe:<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEuropeans should be reacting just like the group of Latin American countries are,\u201d said Nathalie Tocci, Director at the Istituto Affari Internationali. \u201cThrough our ambiguity and silence we\u2019re behaving as colonies, which can only tickle Trump\u2019s imperial ambitions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEurope\u2019s stakes in the region go beyond Greenland: the Caribbean region includes EU territories such as Aruba, Curacao and French Guyana,\u201d said Spatafora at the EUISS. \u201cAlso, the majority of cocaine flowing out of Colombia and Venezuela goes to Europe via the South Atlantic. Hence, Europe should be concerned about future developments, especially the risk of regional instability if Venezuela collapses or if other countries are targeted.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAfter this episode, it is becoming illusory to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table to negotiate a balanced peace in Ukraine,\u201d said Maulnay at IRIS. \u201cIt is a huge threat for European Union security.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Greenland:<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGreenland remains a concern, even though the U.S. has not recently made any military moves towards the region,\u201d said Spatafora. \u201cIt would be best for Europeans to show to the U.S. that attempting to foment a change in Greenland would be costly to Washington, it would be a disaster for allied cooperation and would be a gift to the Chinese and Russian presence in the region which the U.S. claims is a national security risk. All the U.S. goals can be attained through cooperation with Denmark and Europe. This may need to be shown not just in words but in actions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t